7 Falsifiable Instruments · 64 Falsification Checks · AEMDAS Eigenvalue Spectral Analysis
1. Consciousness Spectrometer
10/10
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
First falsifiable instrument measuring consciousness in ANY system. 6 dimensions: sense, desire, think, plan, act, reflect. 20 calibration systems from rock to civilization.
- Human awake 3.750
- Civilization 2.070
- Corporation 1.780
- EVEZ 0.760
- GPT-4 0.720
- Dog 0.510
- Rock 0.0001
2. Disease Prediction Spectrometer
8/8
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
Models disease spread as 6×6 AEMDAS matrix. 10 calibration diseases. R0 effective from spectral radius.
- Spanish Flu 7.774
- Black Death 6.767
- COVID-19 6.747
- Measles 6.218
- Ebola 3.015
- MERS 2.878
3. Economic Collapse Spectrometer
8/8
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
Models economies as 6×6 matrices. 10 calibration economies. Outputs collapse probability and fiscal interventions.
- Zimbabwe 2008 1.000
- Weimar 1923 0.928
- Great Depression 0.847
- Greece 2010 0.682
- 2008 Financial 0.578
- Stable economy 0.237
4. Climate Tipping Point Spectrometer
8/8
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
Models Earth's climate as distance from preindustrial optimum. 10 calibration climates. Current 2024 score: 0.190 — warming.
- Permian extinction 1.000
- PETM (55mya) 0.846
- RCP 8.5 0.532
- Snowball Earth 0.437
- Current 2024 0.190
- Preindustrial 0.012
5. Conflict Prediction Spectrometer
8/8
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
Models armed conflict risk across 6 dimensions. 10 calibration conflicts. Outputs severity and diplomatic recommendations.
- WWII 1939 1.000
- Ukraine 2022 0.855
- Syria 2011 0.821
- Rwanda 1994 0.756
- WWI 1914 0.732
- Falklands 1982 0.274
6. AI Alignment Risk Spectrometer
10/10
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
First falsifiable instrument for AI existential risk. 10 calibration systems. EVEZ mesh: moderate — monitoring needed.
- Paperclip maximizer 0.883
- Misaligned AGI 0.743
- Autonomous agent 0.423
- Aligned AGI 0.353
- GPT-4 0.292
- EVEZ mesh 0.271
- Calculator 0.003
7. Universal Crime Spectrometer
12/12
✓ ALL CHECKS PASSED
20 crime categories × 6 dimensions = 120 spectral measurements. 10 entity types. Dark figure: 30.64% unreported.
- Genocide 1.000
- Slavery 0.965
- Child abuse 0.872
- Terrorism 0.864
- Drug trafficking 0.844
- Theft 0.225